Ibadan Journal of the Social Sciences
Volume 15, No. 1, 2017
DOI: 10.36108/ijss/7102.51.0150

Temporal Analysis of Fatality Risk, Economic Growth and Motorization in Africa

Ipingbemi, Olusiyi1 and Vanderschuren, Marianne2

1Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Ibadan, Nigeria
2Centre for Transport Studies, University of Cape Town, South Africa


Over the last decades, researchers have been carrying out long-term trend analysis on road fatalities, concluding that trends during early economic growth periods reveal an increase in fatalities per population. After varying periods, countries start to be able to invest in safety measures, leading to a decrease in fatality rates. This paper examines the applicability of this theory in countries. In the first instance, road fatality trends in Africa were reviewed, after which the economic trends were added. Detailed analyses of selected African countries confirmed the threshold theory and revealed that African nations follow the wide range of thresholds found in other countries. However, the wide thresholds make it difficult to predict the threshold value for African countries. The paper suggested the need to implement comprehensive and elaborate road safety measures ranging from engineering, education to enforcement.


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